RCC seasonal outlook

Seasonal Forecasts

Seasonal rainfall forecast: December-February 2026/27 for Africa

About the product

Overview

These objective seasonal forecasts show the probability of the dominant tercile for rainfall and 2 m temperature across Africa. They combine twelve seasonal prediction systems from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble and the Copernicus Climate Change Service. Rainfall is verified against CHIRPS v2 and temperature against ERA5 on a 0.5 degree grid. The 1991-2020 period defines the tercile categories and is also used for cross-validated skill assessment. A category is shown only where its probability is at least 40% and the forecast performs at least as well as climatology; white land areas can therefore mean either no dominant category or insufficient hindcast skill.

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Selected outlook

Discussion

Above-normal rainfall is most likely over equatorial East Africa, with probabilities of 60-70% over Kenya, southern Somalia, northern Tanzania and Uganda. Below-normal rainfall is most likely over much of southern Africa, including Botswana, Zimbabwe, Namibia, the South African interior, southern Angola and southern Mozambique. Below-normal rainfall is also favoured over Cameroon, Gabon and the Congo coast. White land areas indicate either no dominant category above 40% or no skill in the 1991-2020 hindcast.