Regional forum profile
Background
SARCOF brings regional and national climate experts together to develop a shared seasonal rainfall and temperature outlook for Southern Africa.
Southern African Development Community member countries.
Main Southern African rainfall seasons
ENSO, Indian and Atlantic Ocean conditions, regional circulation and land-surface influences on Southern African rainfall.
Drought, flood, heat and rainfall timing anomalies affecting food, water, energy and disaster preparedness.
The RCOF
Experts assess global and regional ensemble forecasts, statistical guidance, recent climate conditions, analogue years, trends and available verification. The evidence is discussed jointly, uncertainties are documented, and a consensus outlook is prepared for communication and national downscaling.
User involvement
NMHSs, regional organisations and sector users jointly interpret the outlook and develop advisories.
Way forward
Support national downscaling, impact-based forecasting, verification and consistent regional communication.