Regional forum profile
Background
GHACOF combines climate monitoring, forecasts and expert interpretation to communicate likely seasonal conditions and impacts across the Greater Horn of Africa.
IGAD member countries and neighbouring areas of the Greater Horn.
March–May and October–December rainfall seasons
Indian Ocean variability, ENSO, regional circulation and land–atmosphere conditions affecting the region's bimodal rainfall regimes.
Drought, flood, extreme heat and abnormal onset, cessation or distribution of seasonal rainfall.
The RCOF
Experts assess global and regional ensemble forecasts, statistical guidance, recent climate conditions, analogue years, trends and available verification. The evidence is discussed jointly, uncertainties are documented, and a consensus outlook is prepared for communication and national downscaling.
User involvement
Food security, agriculture, water, livestock, health, disaster-risk and humanitarian partners contribute to impact-based guidance.
Way forward
Connect regional forecasts with national and sector advisories and expand early action informed by forecast probabilities.